St. Louis Cardinals@Pittsburgh Pirates

Statlyra analysis

Statlyra projects 2.08 runs for St. Louis Cardinals in F5, within an estimated 4.93 for the matchup.

The selection St. Louis Cardinals Under 2.5 runs · innings 1–5 carries an estimated probability of 65.6%. Matthew Liberatore starts for St. Louis Cardinals and Lake Bachar for Pittsburgh Pirates; the projection is built on their starter metrics.

Starters

Matthew Liberatore (STL) · Lake Bachar (PIT)

Period

First five innings

Market

Team total

What supports this prediction

• 2.08 projected against a 2.5 line: 0.42 below.
• Projected split: STL 2.08 - PIT 2.85.
• 65.6% computed with an independent Poisson model over the projected runs.
• Projection built on the starter metric: MLB weighted ERA.

Model: v5.0.0