Milwaukee Brewers@Philadelphia Phillies

Statlyra analysis

Statlyra projects 1.90 runs for Philadelphia Phillies in F5, within an estimated 4.39 for the matchup.

The selection Philadelphia Phillies Under 2.5 runs · innings 1–5 carries an estimated probability of 70.2%. Logan Henderson starts for Milwaukee Brewers and Aaron Nola for Philadelphia Phillies; the projection is built on their starter metrics.

Starters

Logan Henderson (MIL) · Aaron Nola (PHI)

Period

First five innings

Market

Team total

What supports this prediction

• 1.90 projected against a 2.5 line: 0.60 below.
• Projected split: MIL 2.49 - PHI 1.90.
• 70.2% computed with an independent Poisson model over the projected runs.
• Projection built on the starter metric: MLB weighted ERA.

Model: v5.0.0