Miami Marlins@Chicago Cubs

Statlyra analysis

In F9 Statlyra projects 4.25 runs for Miami Marlins and 4.13 for Chicago Cubs, a margin of 0.13 in favour of Miami Marlins.

The selection Chicago Cubs +1.5 F9 carries an estimated probability of 68.6%. Ryan Gusto starts for Miami Marlins and Kevin Gausman for Chicago Cubs; the projection is built on their starter metrics.

Starters

Ryan Gusto (MIA) · Kevin Gausman (CHC)

Period

Full game

Market

Run line

What supports this prediction

• Projected margin of 0.13 against a +1.5 handicap.
• Projected split: MIA 4.25 - CHC 4.13.
• 68.6% computed with an independent Poisson model over the projected runs.
• Projection built on the starter metric: MLB weighted ERA.

Model: v5.0.0